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THE AFTERMATH:  Christian De Matteo's Crystal Balls Prove a Bit Foggy, alas

Christian De Matteo’s Crystal Balls:
An Oscars Pre-Commentary and Prediction Article © February 2007

What follows is the original predictions I posted on this website on Friday of this past week.  It turns out my first turn at publicly predicting the Oscars was, well, not wholly tragic, but a bit of a bust.  I will now comment, but not gloat as I hoped I would, on my picks and what happened.  One plus of this whole scenario is that many of the films that I wanted to win but didn't pick did.  This was the most intense and non-angering Oscars I've ever experienced, and, the best news, Days of Glory and Binta and the Great Idea didn't win.  But the anti-socialist The Lives of Others did.  It wasn't the year of Guillermo that I thought it might be, but the year of Marty did come, and was much welcome.  Let's see what went down... my new commentary, like this, will be in red.

 

Well, it’s Martini time again… at least, that’s the classy way I like to enjoy the Oscars and other similarly high-brow events like black-tie affairs and bowling.  What follows is my commentary on each and every category of the Oscars (the televised ones, that is, not the Technicals  BUT MAGGIE GYLLENHALL IS SMOKING HOT EVEN IF I CAN'T SPELL HER NAME!).  I don’t yet have enough ego (give it a week) to claim my predictions will be the correct ones, but let’s see what happens.  I’ve made a conscious effort this year to see as many of the films in question as possible, as this years Oscars list didn’t immediately tick me off as much as normal.  If fact, I think the Academy’s done a pretty damn good job of lining up the best of the best.  It’s not like Chicago’s going to sweep this time or anything that asinine.  There’s a lot of good stuff in contention and it is indeed going to be a hard year to predict.  In light of that, I’ve included my thoughts on possible upsets, which is either being very thorough or covering myself with cop-outs.  You can be the judge. 

After the Oscars I will revisit this very page and comment on my astounding clairvoyance or udder stupidity honestly and give my final, usually grouchy, thoughts.

 If you don’t know what’s been nominated where and how, or for those of you playing the home game, feel free to get the nominee cheat sheet here before continuing:  Oscars.com

Let’s roll.

Actor – Leading 

For me, personally, this is a fairly whittled down category already, leaving only two real contenders and three coulda-beens.   

Leonardo DiCaprio, first of all, was knocked out immediately by virtue of being nominated for the massive turd that was Blood Diamond.  While he certainly did the best job he could with the script, the script didn’t allow him to play one character, as I’ve commented before, and as a result no clear character portrayal emerges.  Why he wasn’t nominated for the far superior The Departed is a mystery to me.  So, Leo is out.

Ryan Gosling was, unquestionably excellent, and is usually excellent in Half Nelson, a movie that effected me more deeply the three days that followed my viewing of it, more than while I was watching it.  He does a great job, BUT the character requires calm, quiet, thoughtful acting, and therefore, doesn’t wow us with dynamism as much as with even portrayal.  I hate to say that show-boaty type roles are better, they’re not always, but this one just doesn’t break the sound barrier, and I think the Academy will, rightly, decide to let the young actor get some more roles under his belt.  Only with more variety on his resume can we know how far of a stretch this was for him.  That said, he certainly deserved the nomination. 

Will Smith, who I’ve been a defender of for as long as I’ve defended Leo, sort of puts himself in the same category here with Mr. Gosling.  He’s very good, very convincing but, again, how much range does this show.  Yes, he fits the part perfectly and The Pursuit of Happyness certainly showcases his best work yet, but the role, to me, isn’t an Oscar guarantee.  He’s got plenty more time and plenty more rolls before his own rap lyrics need to be proved:  “I’ve got a grammy on my shelf, soon I’m gonna have an Oscar too” or something like that. 

And that leaves Peter O’Toole.  For me, this doesn’t have to do with whether or not he’s a sentimental favorite or not, though it certainly will effect the voters in the Academy, but rather the fact that the role of Maurice in Venus is a deeply personal (to the character, mind you) and deeply varied portrayal on his part.  All the best of Peter O’Toole is on display here.  What stands in his way, I think, is A) that he made several movies last year and doesn’t yet seem to be on his last legs, and B) our final nominee. 

Forest Whitaker, always a welcome presence in a film, usually able to save any scene he’s in, no matter how bad the movie (I give you 4 Dogs Playing Poker and, yes, The Crying Game).  We’ve loved him for years, but in the extraordinary Last King of Scotland, he gives us infinite amounts more than he’s ever given us before.  The man is incredible. 

My vote:  Forest Whitaker (though I’ll also take Mr. O’Toole)

My prediction:  Forest Whitaker 

I WAS RIGHT HERE, AND VERY HAPPY THAT GHOST DOG HIMSELF WON AN OSCAR FOR GREAT WORK AND GAVE A VERY NICE SPEECH.  I MUST ALSO ADD, HOWEVER, THAT I WAS VERY SAD TO SEE PETER O'TOOLE NOT WIN, AS I THINK HE WAS.  HE TRULY DESERVED AN OSCAR FOR THIS FILM, AND EVERYONE SHOULD SEE IT TO CELEBRATE HIM AND THANK HIM FOR AMAZING WORK.  CONGRATS, FOREST, WELL DONE.

Actor – Supporting 

For me, and I’m just one man talking, this is an open and shut case. 

Jackie Earle Haley, hands down and off kids.  What a performance, what a movie, what a slow burn explosion greatly in the hands of Mr. Haley who enters quietly and stealthfully takes over the movie.  Give it to him!  Little Children is excellent and he’s a huge part of it. 

However, I don’t think he’ll get it, except in some awesome upset.  Djimon Hounsou, who should have won already for what he did in In America, was excellent but suffers from the same curse as Mr. DiCaprio:  the awful screenplay and directing of Blood Diamond.  Unless they give him an apology Oscar (like Russell Crowe got for Gladiator because they knew they screwed up not giving him one for The Insider), he’s probably out.  And he should be, because, again, he played several inconsistent characters. 

Alan Arkin, who I love and thought did a great job in Little Miss Sunshine, was kinda still Alan Arkin.  He hasn’t done enough high-profile stuff to get the sentimental favorite thing and I think will just be enjoying a well-earned nomination. 

And so we come to the rub:  Eddie Murphy for his full-length James Brown impersonation from the old days that everyone seems to think is the freshest and most original thing ever, or Marky Mark and his Funky gun in The Departed.  I think Mark Wahlberg is a very good actor who should have won years ago for Boogie Nights if he was going to and didn’t impress me overly with his part in The Departed.  He did a great supporting performance of a one-note character.  He was, however, much better than Eddie Murphy in the debacle of gigantic proportions that was Dreamgirls.  In the long run, I think the Academy will defy the Globes and give it to the more accomplished dramatic actor, Wahlberg and let Eddie give it another go in the future… or make Norbit 2. 

My vote:  Jackie Earle Haley

My prediction:  Mark Wahlberg 

HOLY CRAP.  REALLY, THAT'S MY MAIN THOUGHT.  WHAT A SHOCK AND THE FIRST SIGN THAT EVERYTHING WAS TRULY UP IN THE AIR THIS YEAR.  ALAN FREAKIN' ARKIN.  I STICK BY MY GUNS THAT MR. HALEY SHOULD HAVE WON, BUT I CAN'T SAY THAT I'M OVERLY UPSET ABOUT THIS.  ARKIN CONTINUES TO DO EXCELLENT AND EXPERIMENTAL WORK AND MUCH DESERVED HIS OSCAR, ESPECIALLY WITH GREAT FILMS LIKE 13 CONVERSATIONS ABOUT 1 THING IN HIS RECENT PAST.  CONGRATS, AND SORRY EDDIE, BUT YOU HAVE TO DO SOMETHING THAT ISN'T A REHASH OF AN OLD SNL SKIT.  MARKY MARK, WHO HANDLED HIMSELF ADMIRABLY CAN TRY AGAIN IN THE DEPARTED SEQUEL.

Actress – Leading 

This may be the toughest category for me personally.  Let’s try and do this quick, bullet style: 

  • Penelope Cruz:  I’ll talk about Volver later, but her performance was flat-out excellent.  Deeply nuanced and emotional, yet never over-wraught and always real.  We know this woman, we respect this woman, we love this woman and we may just be a little afraid of this woman, but only in that loving kind of way.  Great, but Penelope’s a newcomer to the Oscar scene and has many good years ahead of her, so they’ll probably hold off.
  • Judi Dench:  On my list of hot, hot, hot older women.  The woman is smoking and smolders in the creepiest and classiest way in Notes on a Scandal, one of the best movies of the year.  She’s unbelievable and, with her beautiful co-star, keeps the suspense in every sentence, but never oversells it.  The lady’s a Dame, and oh, what a dame!  However, I think the world has discovered her counterpart and the academy will probably take a break from celebrating her to welcome some, perhaps, much needed competition from:
  • Helen Mirren:  I like Ms. Mirren a lot.  Even in the bizarre Shadowboxer, she remained classy while being dirty and strange.  The Queen, a very decent movie, I think is held together by her perfect performance saying everything the dialogue didn’t with little looks and actions.
  • Meryl Streep:  … is where it’s at always.  Even in The Bridges of Madison County, which I despised, I was enraptured by her.  Meryl is the queen, the bar by which most other actresses are measured… but, the two that aren’t measured by her are also in this category, so I doubt they’ll give it to Meryl for a comedy.  That’s okay, there’s always Mama Mia!  (Don’t do it, Meryl.)
  • Kate Winslet:  This category is killing me.  My ultimate dream is to give five Oscars to all these ladies because they were all astounding.  Kate Winslet proved again why she is one of the most interesting actresses working, and did a job that was stupendous.  I think she’s got a shot, but probably will bow, like all others, to the juggernaut that is Helen Mirren.

My vote: Helen Mirren

My prediction: Helen Mirren

My possible upset: Kate Winslet

My final thought:  Judi Dench was really part of a two-person ensemble in Notes, and I think her performance, hinging so much on Cate Blanchett’s superb acting will be viewed not as individual, but rather as part of the whole, therefore giving Ms. Mirren the edge. 

THE ONE "NOT-SHOCK" OF THE EVENING.  EVERYONE KNEW SHE WAS GOING TO WIN BECAUSE, HONESTLY, SHE DESERVED IT.  STILL IN ALL, WHAT A CATEGORY OF TALENT.  EACH OF THESE WOMEN IS AND WAS PHENOMENAL.  GREAT WORK TO ALL, AND CONGRATS TO ONE OF THE CLASSIEST WOMEN IN FILM TODAY.

Actress – Supporting 

See, now here we have a clear cut case for me.  Cate Blanchett, always and forever.  She and Judi Dench are such a powerhouse, feeding off each other, steam roll over you in Notes.  I believe she needs to be recognized finally for the range she has, especially for something like this, her usual well-above-par performance, rather than her lesser performance in The Aviator.  But she did already win for the Aviator…. 

Jennifer Hudson, her only real competition here, is also noteworthy, but in my opinion suffers from the Blood Diamond curse also in Dreamgirls.  Her character is flawed in its writing, inconsistent and frankly, ridiculous.  She does a great job, but the girl has plenty of time to prove herself in a solid roll.  Everyone else, however, seems enamoured. 

Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, I think, cancel each other out for Babel, especially since Inurrito seems to use actors more in the chattel sense of Hitchcock here to tell the story and doesn’t allow them that much time to shine.  Rinko Kikuchi is a possible upset, especially for playing deaf when she isn’t, but I doubt they’ll be there at the end. 

And so we get to Abigail Breslin, who was wonderful, cute and probably not going to win when up against Cate Blanchett. 

My vote:  Cate Blanchett

My prediction: Cate Blanchett – I’m going out on a limb here with this one, this is my shakiest prediction here.  This requires having faith in the Academy to do the right thing, which, I frankly don’t. 

I WILL ADMIT I'D SINCE CHANGED MY VOTE TO, AS IT TURNED OUT, THE WINNER JENNIFER HUDSON AT THE LAST MOMENT WHERE I CAME IN A THREE WAY TIE FOR SECOND.  UGH.  I'M GLAD SHE WON FOR HER, BUT SHE DIDN'T REALLY DESERVE IT FOR THE HORRIBLY MIXED UP CHARACTER SHE PLAYED IN THE AWFUL DREAMGIRLS.  CATE SHOULD HAVE WON, AND I REFUSE TO CHANGE MY VOTE ON THIS, NOT THAT IT MATTERED.

Animated Feature 

Happy Feet.  Cars was Pixar’s most flawed film in a pantheon of excellent works, was overlong and dull in the middle.  Monster House was the best of the three, but doesn’t seem to have the popularity factor of the other two.  Happy Feet is a wonderfully Moulin Rouge-esque film that’s engaging and delivers a real story and a message.  Plus, I don’t think the Academy is done with penguins yet.  We’ll see how Farce of the Penguins does next year… right

My vote:  Monster House

My prediction: Happy Feet… which is also fine with me. 

AS I SAID, MONSTER HOUSE SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN THIS, BUT I'M HAPPY FOR THE FEET.  AGAIN, I COULDN'T REALLY GET MAD THIS YEAR.  HAPPY FEET, IF A BIT HEAVY HANDED AT THE END, WAS A VERY AMBITIOUS CHILDREN'S FILM AND WAS A LOT OF FUN. 

Art Direction

The only one I haven’t seen her is The Good Shepherd, but I don’t consider it a threat.  I’m giving this one to Pan’s Labyrinth, a movie I think is going to do very well this year, the year of Guilliermo.  Pirates was not too different from Pirates 1, The Prestige was subtly beautiful and the Academy doesn’t seem to notice subtlety, and Dreamgirls I hate… and it was pretty gaudy and fake looking. 

My vote:  Pan’s Labyrinth

My prediction:  Pan’s Labyrinth 

BUT OF COURSE THIS WOULD WIN.  THE FILM DEPENDED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON ITS LOOK AND FEEL AND A GREAT DEAL OF THIS WAS THE ART.  NOT THE YEAR OF GUILLERMO BUT HIS LITTLE FILM DID QUITE WELL.

Cinematography 

Again, Pan’s Labyrinth.  The plot depends so much on the way the movie is shot and accomplishes all it sets out to.  Beautiful, and anyway, if The Black Dahlia wins anything ever but a razzie, I’m gonna choke someone.  Children of Men was very well shot, but not well seen, and The Prestige, again was subtle. I think Pan’s biggest competition here is The Illusionist, also artfully shot, and a possible upset.

 My vote:  Pan’s Labyrinth

My prediction Pan’s Labyrinth

Possible upset: The Illusionist 

AGAIN, IT ABSOLUTELY HAD TO.  AT THIS POINT, I WAS STILL QUITE COCKY.  CONGRATS TO DEL TORO ON AN EXCELLENT FILM.

Costume Design

While The Devil Wears Prada is about fashion, and I’ve heard from people who know about these things that they’ve done a good job, I don’t think enough was required as far as stretching and taking chances to land the fashion movie the fashion nod.  I could be very wrong about this, but we’ll see.  Dreamgirls, I think holds a good chance here, playing as they did with period stage outfits and covering about three decades, but I don’t know that they, again really stretched enough to have done anything more than make them appropriate for the film.  This might be enough for a win, but I don’t think so. 

The only one I haven’t yet seen here is The Curse of the Golden Flower, which, from all photos I’ve seen really had fun with their costumes, making the costumes characteristics of the characters and making a statement about the time period and the individuals with each clothing choice.  Marie Antoinette does this as well, fashion and music being deeply at the heart of the interpretation Ms. Coppola seemed to be leading us into, and, like Curse, leading us to understand the time period and the people by their eccentric clothing choices, but my gut says that if it comes down to the two of them the better reviewed Curse will probably get the nod.  Lord knows, we didn’t get to see the costumes in Marie Antoinette in action all that much, since no one moved a great deal in the film, meaning that the practicality of the costuming wasn’t so much in question as with Curse.  That, to me, says more about the craft of costuming Curse over the simple visual appeal of Marie Antoinette… which was often quite appealing.

 This leaves The Queen, which was wholly appropriate costuming, which means subtle, which means the Academy probably won’t notice.

 My vote:  Curse of the Golden Flower

My prediction: Curse of the Golden Flower

Possible upset:  The Devil Wears Prada for all the obvious reasons. 

WOW.  I CAN'T SAY MUCH BAD ABOUT MARIE ANTOINETTE AND GET WHY IT WON.  I STILL THINK CURSE SHOULD HAVE WON BUT I'M NOT OVERLY SURPRISED.

Directing

 Again, let’s bullet, shall we: 

·        Babel:  First of all, this won the Golden Globe.  I don’t think that means it will win the Oscar though.  For me, the film, while exceptional on many levels, is not a pleasant watch, and does not, therefore have a big rewatchability factor.  Though very engaging, watching Babel is way too much akin to being kicked in the stomach repeatedly for two hours.  I’ve been a fan of Inarritu for almost all of his work.  I love Amores Perros and though 21 Grams was his Oscar bid and was disappointed when it wasn’t.  Babel, to me, is his most ambitious work, but also his least satisfying.  Rather then simply feeling and absorbing the story and, ultimately, the point, we are beaten half to death with it, and not in that good effected by a movie way.  And as I said above, even with a star like Cate Blanchett performing wonderfully, the actors really don’t take center stage as much as the story does, making the people a little less engaging since we are being too overwhelmed by events.  Rinko Kikuchi might save him from this, but I don’t think so.

·        The Departed:  And so we enter the real issue this year:  Is it my old pal Marty’s year?  (Some of you may remember, I was a lowly PA on Bringing Out the Dead and there’s no way in hell he even remembers me… unless maybe you prompted him with, “You remember that PA who cut off part of his thumb on the daily scripts?” and probably not then either… but his ex-wife/producer Barbara De Fina certainly would remember me, and not for any good reasons at all.  Ask her about her wild ride through Manhattan traffic.)  The Departed is a very good film, and certainly Scorsese’s best in several years, eons beyond the sub-par, and frankly sub-Scorsese stuff of Gangs of New York and The Aviator.  Here we have a solid story at the proper length, that is deeply intense AND FILLED WITH CHARACTERS WE CARE ABOUT.  This is the Scorsese of Taxi Driver and Raging Bull.  Of Boxcar Bertha and Cape Fear.  Of Casino and The Last Waltz.  Top that off with the fact that the film is the perfect Americanization of foreign material, paying homage to it, staying with it, all the while making it a story that could happen here.  Getting the performance out of Leo that we always knew he could get and capturing yet another side of Matt Damon that only Scorsese would encourage, he’s directed the movie that justifies movie fans love of action, suspense thrillers.  Truly, this is a contender.

·        Letters from Iwo Jima:  A very Japanese film made by an American.  To me, this and The Departed are what matters this year, this is the battle royale we unfortunately will only get to see the result of.  Brilliantly shot, engagingly told, steering clear of most “See there just like us” crap and instead focusing on the differences that make them who they are, celebrating a different culture and honestly, as he did with Flags of Our Fathers, assessing the faults within those very definitions, Clint Eastwood has produced the art house war movie, that real war movie fans probably never thought could be made, doing the director’s equivalent of acting entirely in a foreign language convincingly.  (The Algerians couldn’t do it with Days of Glory, instead making the movie war movie fans always assumed an art house war movie would be: boring.)  Almost entirely in Japanese, with great performances, particularly by Kentaro Watanabe and Kazunari Ninomiya, the movie moves with the pace and brilliance of Akira Kurasawa’s best work and stands completely on its own, despite being the sister film of Flags.  The other real contender.

·        The Queen:  A very good movie, quiet and real, with great performances from all the leads, The Queen, I don’t think is dynamic enough to contend with the last two mentioned.  The film succeeded or failed almost entirely on the performance by the actress playing the title role, and I don’t think the Academy will forget that.  While Mirren’s Oscar is almost a guarantee, I don’t think The Queen is really in the fight for best picture.  Stephen Frears, as well as he directed Mirren, probably wouldn’t have had as engaging a movie without her.

·        United 93:  One of the best films of the year, one of the most affecting and harrowing stories ever attempted by Hollywood so close to the event, controversial and brilliant, United 93 is truly a magnificent, if painful film.  Somehow, despite its sensitive nature, the film succeeds where Babel fails in actually, somehow, being both rewatchable and only brutal to the point that you still enjoy the story and want to know more and celebrate the characters.  Three quarters of the way through Babel, you begin to feel so bad for the people involved that if they all suddenly died, you’d be relieved for not having to suffer with them any longer.  United 93, despite it’s reality, doesn’t bring that emotion out.  You’re rooting for them, despite knowing the end, whereas in Babel, you just want them all to happily embrace the peace of non-existence.  Paul Greengrass does an excellent toeing the line between an entertainment and a history, leans more to history and successfully makes a movie.

 So what then?  I have to say that this is going to be one of my two biggest shots in the dark.  As Mike Flanagan has pointed out to me, Clint also directed two movies this year that inform each other, and certainly will be a consideration in the Directing decision.  Many might also think this might be his opus, Clint is getting on in years.  He’s got 12 years on Martin Scorsese.  Between the two only real players, Letters and The Departed…

 My vote:  Letters from Iwo Jima

My prediction:  Hesitantly… The Departed

Note:  I am totally guessing.

YEAH MARTY!  FINALLY, THE SCORSESE HAS COME BACK TO THE OSCARS.  HE WAS OBVIOUSLY THRILLED AND WAS CERTAINLY IN GREAT COMPANY WITH HIS THREE PRESENTERS.  THIS WAS A HARD-EARNED WIN WITH A LOT OF HISTORY.  IF NOT FOR RAGING BULL, GOODFELLAS OR TAXI DRIVER, WHY NOT FOR THE DEPARTED.  EXCELLENT AND WELL DONE.  I STILL THINK CLINT DID A BETTER JOB THIS YEAR, BUT I DON'T HAVE PROBLEM WITH MARTY GETTING THIS.

 Documentary Feature:

 This is a large bone of contention for me.  I decided this was going to be the year of Christian on the documentaries.  I don’t generally watch a lot of documentaries but figured this year I would get ahead of curve so I could actually know what they were talking about this time around, instead of simply shrugging and grunting like I normally do.  I saw Sketches of Frank Gehry, The Devil and Daniel Johnston, Who Killed the Electric Car, Leonard Cohen: I’m Your Man and An Inconvenient Truth.

 Only the last was even nominated.

 So, I guess this, with much less trepidation than the last, and much less caring, pretty in the dark.  I wanted to see Deliver Us From Evil, but just never managed.

 The choices:  Deliver Us From Evil, An Inconvenient Truth, Iraq in Fragments, Jesus Camp, and My Country, My Country.

 Pulling this totally out of somewhere less than pleasant:

My vote: Deliver Us From Evil

My prediction: An Inconvenient Truth 

I am still angry about this turn of events.  The Devil and Daniel Johnston should absolutely have been nominated.  See it. 

WHATEVER.  WE ALL KNEW IT.  LIKE GORE NEEDED MORE SCREEN TIME TO PROMOTE HIS SCI-FI AGENDA.  MY FRIEND MARK Y. HAD THE QUOTE OF THE NIGHT WHEN THIS WON:  "INTERESTING THIS WON WHILE IT'S SNOWING OUT."

Documentary Short:

 Imagine me shrugging and grunting, so let’s have some utterly uninformed fun.

 My vote: Rehearsing a Dream

My prediction: Two Hands

This is a totally and completely uneducated guess... because frankly, I don’t give a damn.

I WAS TOTALLY WRONG AND DON'T REALLY CARE.  GOOD FOR THE BLOOD OF SOME DISTRICT.

 Film Editing

 First of all, that Blood Diamond is up for film editing can, to my mind, only be a gag of infinite proportions.  If any editing was done on this movie, it was just for the purpose of scrambling it up even further.  The movie should have been edited down an entire hour before it was released, and maybe, just maybe the plot would have held together.

 For this category, I think the only clear winner among the other four, The Departed, Children of Men, Babel and United 93 is the last one.  United 93 is shot with a documentary feel and in real time with the actual event.  The film works perfectly and a great deal of this is due to the fantastic editing.

THELMA SCHOONMAKER'S GOT AN OSCAR!  VERY COOL.  HONESTLY, UNITED 93 DESERVED THIS MORE THAN ANYTHING,  BUT I CAN DEAL.  HOPEFULLY ENOUGH PEOPLE SAW UNITED 93 TO KNOW HOW WELL EDITED IT WAS.  THEN AGAIN, THIS WAS SCORSESE'S SHORTEST MOVIE IN A LONG TIME AND THAT IS TRULY SAYING SOMETHING.  WHEN SHE WAS NOMINATED FOR THE AVIATOR I LAUGHED OUT LOUD.  GOOD JOB THIS TIME, THELMA.

 Foreign Language Film

 Let’s go Matrix, with some bullet time:

  • After the Wedding:  The only one I haven’t seen.  By the way, who’s ever in charge of distribution for this puppy should be tar and feathered.  The movie is not releasing in America until March 30th, so if this puppy doesn’t win, they’ve just lost a plethora of money.  Well done, jerky.  Regardless, I don’t think this one is in the running.
  • Days of Glory (Indigenes):  As with actual war, the French and those influenced by them, in this case the Algerians, should leave war movies to those capable of following them through to their natural and successful end.  Rare is it, that even in a bad movie, that the war scenes can be so bereft of interest and excitement or horror.  They’re just boring.  The problem here is that the film makers wanted to make a message more than they wanted to make a movie, so every scene plays like another checkmark in favor of their point.  A movie is, first and foremost, an entertainment and when it does not entertain anything else the movie might be offering is useless.  We should leave the theater entranced with the story and understanding instinctively, not because we felt we were told, what the point of the plot, the thesis of the entertainment, or better yet, the human truth of the movie is.  Indigenes not only doesn’t do this, but at some points barely holds together in narrative order.  It is, however, better than Blood Diamond, this year’s other committer of the above sins.  Diamond’s Zwick and Indigenes’ Bouchareb should sit down for a viewing, as I seem to keep recommending, of Paul Greengrass’s United 93.
  • The Lives of Others:  And here is the foreign film that floored me this year, and, in many ways, the exact opposite of Days of Glory.  This is a very human story of artists, particularly a playwright, his actress girlfriend and his writer friends, dealing with the Socialist black-listing tendencies of East Germany before the wall came down.  When the movie ends, you are so incredibly engrossed in the humanity, aware of the emotion and poignancy of the tale, and so utterly astounded by each of the characters and their decisions, that you are only vaguely aware at first of the brilliant comment the movie has made comparing socialism to Nazism and any other “isms” that curtail the freedom of the people to discuss them and live freely.  Brilliant, deeply affecting, and perfectly executed, this is, unquestionably, one of the years best films.  I didn’t think anything could replace Pan’s Labyrinth for me in this category, but this, by a hair, did.
  • Pan’s Labyrinth:  Truly the culmination of the career of writer/director Guillermo Del Toro’s career up to this point, the ending of his fairy tale/horror trilogy that began brilliantly with Cronos and continued with the astounding The Devil’s Backbone.  This Alice in Wonderland in the hell of war tale manages somehow to capture a children’s exuberance and imagination while wholly delving into the horror of war and the men who love it.  The movie is phenomenal, visually spectacular and a real thrill to watch.  I love this movie completely, and though, I would love to see The Lives of Others win, I will be completely happy with Guillermo getting his due after making the very best genre out there.
  • Water:  I didn’t have any real interest in this movie, and now want to watch the two preceding movies by director Deepa Mehta, of which this is the final movie in the thematic trilogy.  Powerful and terrifying, the movie takes place in 1939 India and deals with an aspect of the caste system I must admit I knew nothing about: widows as untouchables.  The film, while slowly paced, is not slow (unlike Marie Antoinette which is both) and builds to a deep and harrowing intensity, but, unlike Babel, never lets go of hope.  A beautiful movie well deserving of its nomination.

 My vote: The Lives of Others

My prediction:  Pan’s Labyrinth… which I’m totally okay with too. 

AGAIN, HOLY CRAP.  HOW COOL WAS THIS.  IT COST ME SOME MONEY, AND I'M SORRY FOR GUILLERMO, BUT THIS WAS TRULY THE BEST OF THIS CATEGORY.  I'M GLAD I GOT THIS WRONG.  NOW GO SEE THIS MOVIE.  IT TELLS BINTA AND HER GREAT UNICEF IDEA TO GO SCREW.

Makeup 

I don’t really know why Click is here, though I saw it.  I thought the makeup was good, but not particularly impressive in this day and age.  While I would love to see Apocalypto walk away with something, this has to go to Pan’s Labyrinth, if not simply for the brutal scene involving a bottle and a face.  It reminded me of the fire extinguisher and the head in Irreversible, but more realistic.  Plus, I do believe Gulliermo will be pulling a Peter Jackson this year.

 My vote:  Pan’s Labyrinth

My prediction: Pan’s Labyrinth

AGAIN AND AGAIN, OF COURSE.  THIS MOVIE WAS VISUAL ABOVE ALMOST ALL ELSE AND THEY SUCCEEDED WONDERFULLY.  CONGRATS.

 Original Score

 I’m one out here, as I didn’t see (or hear) The Good German.  To me a good score is one you only notice via mood and intensity, but you’re still not really aware you noticed.  The choices are Babel, The Good German, Notes on a Scandal, Pan’s Labyrinth, and The Queen.  I’m between the excellent multi-cultural music of Babel and Pan’s Labyrinth.  Again, I’m sticking with my theory on Pan’s Labyrinth. 

My vote:  Pan’s Labyrinth

My prediction:  Pan’s Labyrinth

Possible upset:  Babel 

AND AN UPSET IT WAS.  I'M GLAD I PUT THIS COP-OUT HERE BECAUSE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED.  IN RETROSPECT, I SHOULD HAVE PICKED THIS FOR ALL THE OBVIOUS REASONS OF THE BREADTH OF THE CULTURES REPRESENTED, BUT I STILL THINK PAN'S WAS MORE AFFECTING AND ADDED MORE WITH LESS INTRUSION.

Original Song

 I hated Dreamgirls.  Really, really hated.  So I really hope none of the crappy, rip-off songs from this terrible movie win.  But… they have to acknowledge it somehow since the Golden Globes practically impregnated it.

 My vote:  I Need to Wake-Up, Melissa Ethridge from An Inconvenient Truth.

My Prediction: Patience, Dreamgirls 

AGAIN, MY VOTE WON, WHICH IS VERY COOL, AND IF I'D PICKED IT I MIGHT HAVE MORE MONEY NOW...

Best Picture:

 Pretty much the same commentary I did for Best Director, with the exception of no United 93 and the addition of Little Miss Sunshine, the brilliant and funny little comedy that surprised America so pleasantly this summer.  As wonderful as it is, a comedy with only a few nominations is not going to take home the Best Picture Oscar.

 The Queen, while a very good movie, wouldn’t have been if not for Mirren, as with any other actress it would have been very slow.  Not going to get Best Picture.

Babel took this from the Golden Globes, but, again, I think the real contest is between Letters from Iwo Jima and The Departed.  This is the hardest thing to predict here, but I’m going to take a chance.

 My vote: Letters from Iwo Jima

My prediction:  Letters from Iwo Jima

BY THIS POINT IN THE CEREMONY I REALLY THOUGHT ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN.  IF BIODOME WAS ANNOUNCED I WOULDN'T HAVE FALLEN OVER.  I'M REALLY GLAD FOR MARTY AND THE DEPARTED.  I REALLY THINK CLINT SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN IT FOR LETTERS, BUT I'M OKAY WITH THIS.

 Short Film – Animated

The Danish Poet, hands down.  One of the most interesting and wonderful shorts I’ve seen in a long time, very original and quirky.  This is just excellent.  My very close second is Pixar’s Lifted with No Time For Nuts (great title) from Dreamworks in third.  The Maestro is very clever and worth a watch but not ultimately enough, and The Little Matchgirl is well animated, but not overwhelmingly so, and a bit pretentious.  Plus, we’ve heard this story before… a lot.

 My vote:  The Danish Poet

My prediction: The Danish Poet

HAD TO WIN, AND I'M THRILLED IT DID.  TRY TO SEE THIS SOON.

 Short Film – Live Action 

  • Binta and the great Idea:  Socialist idealogical, propaganda crap with no real story and one message after another to be digested and accepted without question by the audience.  Between this, Indigenes, and Blood Diamond, we never really have to think again.  Crap.  And it’s going to win.
  • Eramos Pocos:  Wonderful, funny, clever and ultimately rewarding, this short tells a great story of the most hapless, European men ever caught on film, unsure what to do without a woman to take care of their daily needs.  Very fun.
  • Helmer and Son:  Like all other movies from people who speak Dutch, this one is about a man who has taken over his father’s business and doesn’t want to (why is that all they think about over there?).  This is fun and fits nicely into the time it’s allotted, saying a lot about a family in a short time, all the while being pretty funny and unsentimentally poignant.
  • The Saviour:  I loved this one.  The story of Mormons and adultery, this one really made me laugh a lot, and I look forward to more from this director.
  • West Bank Story:  Literally, West Side Story in the Middle East.  Excellent, brilliant, like the Zuckers in their prime and even better.  Hysterically clever and very, very well executed.  Screw Binta, this should win.

 My vote: West Bank Story

My prediction:  Binta and Marx’s Communist Ideal… I mean, and the Great Idea

I'M SO HAPPY I WAS WRONG BECAUSE THE RIGHT FILM WON.  PERHAPS WILL FERRELL, JACK BLACK AND JOHN C. REILLY'S SONG GOT ITS POINT ACROSS.

 Sound Editing

 I say give this to Flags of Our Fathers, and I’m going to take a guess that this happens.

 My vote:  Flags of Our Fathers

My prediction:  Flags of Our Fathers

FLAGS SHOULD HAVE WON.  THE SOUND IN FLAGS WAS FOR ME MORE POWERFUL AND WELL USED THAN IN LETTERS, BUT CLINT GETS IT ANYWAY.

Sound Mixing

 My vote:  Flags of Our Fathers

My prediction:  Flags of Our Fathers

This movie deserves these two and more.  Some of the best war filming in some time.

SAME AS ABOVE.  THESE TWO CATEGORIES KILLED MY CHANCES OF WINNING ON MY BALLOT.

 Visual Effect

 While Superman was impressive, and Poseidon apparently had a huge wave, there was a freaking Kraken in Pirates.  Come on.

 My vote:  Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

My prediction:  Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest 

BUT OF COURSE.  THERE WAS A FREAKIN' KRAKEN.

Screenplay – Adapted

Wow.  Another big category.  This year I actually read all three of the books in this category, Little Children, Children of Men and Notes on a Scandal.  I’ve seen the early Borat skits and the movie, and I’ve watched Infernal Affairs before seeing The Departed.  In other words, bring it.

 Children of Men was a mostly dry and boring book written by a 90 year old British woman who writes like she’s a 90 year old British woman.  The plot is very, very loosely lifted from the book, and the movie does a much better job with the subject matter than the book, something I rarely say.

 Notes on a Scandal is based on What Was She Thinking:  Notes on a Scandal, a fun and at time laugh-out-loud funny book that the movie took and did and even better, tauter and more suspenseful and funny job with.

 Little Children is a brilliant book, as is the film they made of it, which is almost exactly like the book, except for the last five minutes of the movie and some small details left, wisely for the film medium, out of the movie.  Tom Perrotta does a great job adapting his own book for the screen with writer/director Todd Field, and makes all the right choices.

 Borat… well, I hate that this is in this category, but the movie is like the show character, if not a bit repetitious.  Very good, though disturbing, comedy.

 The script for The Departed is a phenomenal Americanization, as I said earlier, of a very Chinese script.  This is a script adaptation to be proud of.

 My vote:  Little Children

My prediction:  The Departed

HAD TO BE.  AND WELL DESERVED.

 Screenplay – Original 

Now this is an interesting category because here, I think is where Little Miss Sunshine stands a very good chance, but with stiff competition from Letters from Iwo Jima.  The Queen, oddly enough, also is a contender for a script rife with nuance, a real actor’s script, while Babel, again is so story driven that dialogue seems only a vehicle for the movement of the story.  And then there’s Pan’s Labyrinth, which, if my sweep theory be continued, does stand a very good chance for the phenomenal mix of fantasy and brutal reality, all with a child’s mindset.  This is another shaky one.

 My vote:  Little Miss Sunshine

My prediction:  Little Miss Sunshine

GOT THIS ONE RIGHT AS WELL, AND A WELL DESERVED WIN FOR AN EXCELLENT CHALLENGING AND VERY FUNNY SCRIPT.

 So there you have ‘em, just one man talkin but worth a shot.  I’ll be back post-Oscars to comment on my comments and either indulge in monumental acts of self-aggrandizement, or angrily defend my choices.

I didn't do terrible, but I could have done better.  This was an excellent Oscars, something I don't often say.  Hopefully the future will yield more of Mr. Haley and Clint and the team behind Little Miss Sunshine.  And we're guaranteed more Forest, who I'm very proud of.  Mr. O'Toole, you're still one of my, and the rest of the world's, acting heroes.  Maurice will live forever now, and so will you.

 Christian
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